Gold is shattering record highs week after week, transforming what was expected to be a measured start to the year into a full-blown rally that has forced even veteran traders to rethink their outlooks. This is no slow, defensive climb typical of a safe-haven trade. Instead, gold is surging on political anxiety, renewed tariff threats, and the growing uncertainty radiating from Washington under US President Donald Trump.
What makes this rally striking is the absence of traditional catalysts. There is no global recession. Inflation across major economies is stable or easing. Central banks have not unleashed fresh stimulus. And yet, gold continues to scale new peaks—often in direct response to political developments in the United States.
Aamir Makda, Commodity and Currency Analyst at Choice Broking, says the intensity and durability of the rally point to deeper structural forces at play. “Gold and silver prices are hitting fresh highs almost daily as global uncertainties rise,” he notes. According to Makda, the surge reflects a mix of geopolitical tension, shifting monetary expectations, and an accelerating move by central banks to diversify away from the US dollar. He adds that this rally is being driven by sustained accumulation rather than speculation, with even retail investors increasingly treating silver as a core holding.
Since returning to office, Trump has reintroduced a level of political unpredictability that markets are struggling to price in. Each tariff threat, institutional confrontation, or abrupt foreign policy shift has prompted swift moves into safe-haven assets—a trend that intensified following his latest tariff announcement targeting several European nations.
Jateen Trivedi, Vice President and Research Analyst at LKP Securities, says global tensions combined with currency weakness are reinforcing gold’s rise. “Gold traded higher again as rupee weakness supported domestic prices, while fresh geopolitical concerns boosted safe-haven demand,” he explains. Trump’s proposed 10% tariff on EU nations has revived fears around global trade and raised doubts over the progress of key bilateral deals, including US–India negotiations.
Makda agrees that tariff rhetoric has directly accelerated the rally. “Proposed tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on NATO allies have reignited trade war fears, immediately strengthening gold’s appeal as a hedge,” he says. He also warns that political pressure on the US Federal Reserve could undermine confidence in currency stability, further supporting precious metals.
Recent tariff flare-ups have offered a glimpse of how markets may behave for the rest of the year. Equities weakened, the dollar faltered, and investors rushed into traditional havens.
Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, describes the reaction as swift and global. “Trump’s tariff threats against European nations triggered a clear risk-off mood across global markets, pushing investors toward safe-haven assets like gold,” he says. While some Asian markets showed resilience, Indian equities remain cautious amid ongoing foreign investor outflows.
Beyond trade tensions, the broader geopolitical landscape is adding fuel to the fire. Territorial disputes, resource competition, and shifting alliances have become persistent market drivers. Amit Jain, co-founder of Ashika Global Family Office Services, captures the mood succinctly: “Gold and silver are no longer just commodities—they are geopolitics in metal form. This rally reflects a deeper erosion of confidence in global stability.”
India, one of the world’s largest gold consumers, is feeling the effects directly. Rising global prices have pushed domestic rates higher, increasing jewellery costs, affecting wedding demand, and reshaping investment behavior. Traders note that every dip is now attracting buyers rather than sellers.
Makda says Indian prices are being shaped by a powerful mix of global sentiment and local demand, with resistance levels rising steadily. Global targets of $5,000 for gold and $100 for silver, once considered extreme, are now being discussed openly.
The persistence of this rally—despite a relatively stable global economy—underscores how heavily investors are weighing political risk. Markets are no longer reacting to isolated headlines but to a broader reality in which policy direction can shift overnight. In that environment, hedging becomes instinctive.
Trump may not be reviving America as promised, but he has undeniably reinvigorated a metal that thrives on instability. Gold does not respond to slogans—it responds to uncertainty. And right now, Washington is supplying plenty of it.
