Iran’s nationwide protests have entered their third week, with demonstrators challenging the rule of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. According to rights groups, more than 500 people have been killed and thousands arrested. While Islamabad has officially called it Iran’s “internal matter,” behind the scenes, Pakistan’s security and diplomatic establishments are deeply worried.
The concern centres on the Balochistan region, which is split across Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan. Pakistan shares a 900-kilometre border with Iran’s Sistan–Baluchestan province, an area populated by ethnic Baloch who also live in Pakistan’s insurgency-hit Balochistan province. These ethnic, cultural and tribal ties mean unrest on one side of the border can quickly influence the other.
Pakistan has been battling a Baloch separatist insurgency for decades. Any weakening of Iranian control in its eastern provinces could give armed groups space to regroup, move across borders, and find new support networks — something Islamabad fears could intensify violence inside Pakistan.
Beyond militancy, Iran’s unrest also threatens cross-border trade, which is vital for local economies in Balochistan. Analysts warn that instability could:
Disrupt legal trade
Boost fuel and goods smuggling
Increase refugee flows
Weaken border control
All of this comes as Pakistan itself struggles with inflation, debt, and militant violence, including threats from Baloch rebels and the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Adding to the anxiety are reports — though unverified — that US Special Forces may have arrived in Pakistan to prepare for possible operations against Iran. Pakistan and the US have recently begun joint anti-terror drills, fuelling speculation that Islamabad could be pulled into a wider regional conflict if tensions between Washington and Tehran escalate.
Pakistani officials insist they do not want regime change in Iran. As one diplomat put it:
“Pakistan has no desire to see Iran weakened or fractured. Chaos does not stay confined within borders.”
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