The changing patterns of rainfall are becoming increasingly evident. Across the world, extreme rainfall events—or prolonged dry spells—are occurring more frequently, and the intensity, duration, and distribution of rainfall have shifted significantly. How these patterns will evolve in the future is a growing concern, especially as the planet continues to warm due to human-driven climate change.
Researchers are turning to Earth’s ancient climate for insights. By studying geological evidence from the early Paleogene period (roughly 66 to 48 million years ago), scientists have uncovered clues about how a warmer world can influence rainfall. Their findings indicate that extreme warmth can produce more intense but highly unpredictable rainfall, offering lessons for water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation planning today.
To understand future climate behavior, researchers studied a time when atmospheric carbon dioxide was two to four times higher than today. This period followed the extinction of the dinosaurs and featured some of the highest sustained global temperatures in the last 66 million years. Using proxies such as fossilized plants, ancient soils, and river sediments, scientists reconstructed ancient rainfall patterns. For example, the shape and size of fossilized leaves reflect the climate in which the plants grew, while the size and form of ancient riverbeds reveal past water flow patterns.
One of the key findings from the Paleogene record is that rainfall did not simply increase or decrease under extreme warmth. Instead, precipitation became highly irregular, with long dry spells punctuated by intense downpours. This variability, rather than changes in annual totals, poses critical challenges for ecosystems and human societies alike. In some high-latitude regions, rainfall patterns even resembled monsoons, while many mid-latitude and continental interior regions experienced overall drier conditions interrupted by sporadic heavy rain.
This suggests that warmer climates amplify both the intensity and unpredictability of rainfall, complicating water resource management and agricultural planning.
Understanding rainfall under past high-CO2 conditions helps scientists evaluate whether current climate models capture the full range of potential future changes. The study indicates that many models may underestimate how variable and extreme rainfall could become during extreme warming, particularly regarding the duration and intensity of wet and dry periods.
In a warmer future, shifts in rainfall distribution could impact water supply reliability, food production, and the frequency of floods and droughts. Regions experiencing prolonged dry spells may face stress on crops and drinking water, while sudden intense rainfall could trigger floods and soil erosion.
By examining ancient climates, researchers gain a broader perspective on how a hotter world may behave. While averages are important, understanding extremes and variability will be crucial for effective climate adaptation in the coming decades.
