India and France Step Up Rafale Talks Amid Air Force Jet Shortfall

India and France have intensified discussions on afollow-on acquisition of Rafale fighter jets, driven by concerns over the Indian Air Force’s (IAF) declining combat squadron strength, defence sources said. Talks are expected to gain momentum ahead ofFrench President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India next month.

The IAF has strongly advocated agovernment-to-government (G2G) dealfor additional Rafales as an interim measure under the long-pendingMulti-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme, which aims to procure114 modern jets, with a significant portion manufactured domestically through foreign collaboration.

Squadron Strength at Critical Levels

The Air Force’s currentfighter squadron strength has dropped to 29, well below the authorised 42.5 squadrons needed to counter a potential two-front threat from China and Pakistan. Each squadron typically comprises 16–18 aircraft. The retirement of the MiG-21 fleet last year further reduced combat inventory, highlighting the urgent need for interim solutions like additional Rafales.

The MRFA project, initiated 7–8 years ago and estimated to cost over₹1.2 lakh crore, has faced delays due to procedural hurdles and shifting priorities. Defence sources say Rafales are viewed as thefastest solutionto bridge critical capability gaps until MRFA jets are ready.

Make in India Push

Any expanded Rafale acquisition is expected to include astrong ‘Make in India’ component. Tata Advanced Systems Limited (TASL) is partnering with Dassault Aviation to manufacture key Rafale fuselage sections in Hyderabad, with first deliveries expected by FY2028 and potential annual production of up to24 fuselages.

Other initiatives include plans for anengine manufacturing facility in Hyderabadand anMRO hub in Jewar, Uttar Pradesh, aiming to bring up to60% of Rafale manufacturing value into India.

Operational and Political Convergence

The combination of operational urgency, industrial preparedness, and high-level political engagement has created a favourable environment for progress. While no formal announcement is expected immediately,Rafale discussions are likely to feature prominently during President Macron’s visit. Any final deal will require approval from theDefence Acquisition Council (DAC), cost negotiations, and theCabinet Committee on Security (CCS).

Pressure from LCA Mk1A Delays

The IAF’s reliance on Rafales has increased due to delays in theLight Combat Aircraft (LCA) Tejas Mk1Aprogramme. The Air Force has ordered 83 Mk1A jets, with an additional 97 cleared by the DAC, but deliveries have been delayed by supply chain and production issues. Air Chief MarshalAP Singhhas highlighted that these delays widen the gap left by retiring legacy aircraft, making interim Rafale acquisitions crucial for maintaining operational readiness.