Gold May Rally to $6,000 This Year as Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Buying Intensify

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Gold May Rally to $6,000 This Year as Geopolitical Risks and Central Bank Buying Intensify

Gold prices, which crossed a record $5,000 per ounce this week, are expected to climb further toward $6,000 in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainty, strong central-bank purchases and rising investor demand. Analysts say persistent global risks, expectations of US rate cuts and robust ETF inflows are reinforcing gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset.

Published by Somesh | January 26, 2026

Gold prices are expected to extend their record-breaking rally, with analysts forecasting spot prices could approach $6,000 per ounce this year amid rising geopolitical tensions, strong central-bank buying and sustained investor demand.

Spot gold surged to an all-time high of $5,092.70 per ounce on Monday as global economic and political risks rattled financial markets. The safe-haven metal has gained more than 17% so far this year, following a sharp 64% rally in 2025.

According to the London Bullion Market Association’s annual precious metals forecast survey, analysts see gold prices rising as high as $7,150 and averaging $4,742 in 2026. Goldman Sachs has raised its December 2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 from $4,900, while independent analyst Ross Norman expects prices to peak near $6,400 this year, with an average of around $5,375.

“The only certainty at the moment seems to be uncertainty, and that’s playing very much into gold’s hands,” Norman said.

The latest rally has been underpinned by heightened geopolitical tensions, including strains between the US and NATO, tariff uncertainty, and growing concerns about the independence of the US Federal Reserve. Analysts also point to upcoming US mid-term elections and fears of overvalued equity markets as factors driving investors toward portfolio diversification through gold.

“After crossing the $5,000-per-ounce milestone, we expect further upside,” said Philip Newman, director at Metals Focus, adding that political uncertainty and equity market risks are likely to support continued inflows.

Central-bank purchases remain a critical pillar of gold demand. Goldman Sachs estimates central banks will buy an average of 60 metric tons of gold per month this year, led by emerging-market economies diversifying reserves away from the US dollar. Poland’s central bank plans to increase its gold reserves to 700 tons, while China extended its gold-buying streak for a 14th consecutive month in December.

ETF inflows and retail investment demand are also supporting prices. Expectations of further US interest rate cuts have lowered the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, boosting investor appetite. Gold-backed exchange-traded funds recorded record inflows of $89 billion in 2025, with total inflows of 801 metric tons — the highest since 2020, according to World Gold Council data.

While jewellery demand has softened due to high prices, strong buying of small bars and coins in markets such as India and Europe has partially offset the decline. Analysts note that gold’s simplicity and insulation from credit and sovereign risks continue to attract retail investors during periods of geopolitical and economic instability.

Although analysts caution that a pullback could occur if US rate-cut expectations ease or geopolitical risks subside, most believe any correction would be short-lived.

“A sustained decline in gold prices would require a return to a more stable global economic and political environment, which currently appears unlikely,” Newman said.