Venezuela, home to the world’s largest proven oil reserves, has once again come under global focus following US military action and renewed geopolitical churn. While India is not directly affected in the short term, the developments could open selective opportunities for Indian oil refiners and upstream companies if Venezuela’s crude exports are restored and stalled financial flows resume.

Market sentiment reflected this possibility on Monday, with ONGC shares rising about 2% in early trade and Reliance Industries gaining over 1%, touching a fresh 52-week high. According to brokerage Jefferies, both companies could emerge as key Indian beneficiaries if the US moves toward restructuring Venezuela’s oil sector and allows crude exports to global buyers.

Despite holding around 18% of global proven oil reserves, Venezuela currently produces less than 1 million barrels per day, contributing under 1% to global supply. As a result, analysts do not expect any immediate impact on global oil prices. The more meaningful effects, Jefferies notes, would likely play out over 2027–28, once investment returns to Venezuelan oilfields and production gradually recovers.

For Reliance Industries, the biggest advantage lies in access to discounted Venezuelan crude. Venezuelan oil is heavy and sour, requiring highly complex refineries—something Reliance’s Jamnagar refinery is well-equipped to handle. Historically, such crude has traded at a discount of $5–8 per barrel to Brent. Reliance previously sourced nearly 20% of its crude from Venezuela before US sanctions halted the arrangement in 2019. A reopening of trade could support its refining margins and cash flows.

ONGC’s potential upside is more balance-sheet driven. The company has over $500 million in unpaid dues from its Venezuelan operations, including the San Cristobal field. A US-led restructuring could allow repatriation of these funds and revive development at the Carabobo project in the Orinoco Belt, where ONGC holds an 11% stake. Jefferies believes this could support a re-rating of ONGC’s stock, which currently trades below one-time book value.

Another brokerage, Choice Equity Broking, cautions that Venezuela’s production recovery will be slow due to years of underinvestment at PDVSA. Even in a best-case scenario, output may rise by only about 150,000 barrels per day in 2026, with larger gains dependent on fresh capital and improved access to equipment and funding.

Indian refiners could also benefit if imports of discounted Venezuelan crude resume. Before sanctions, India imported up to 400,000 barrels per day from Venezuela, helping refiners improve margins through cheaper heavy oil.

Overall, while India may not see an immediate windfall from US action on Venezuela’s oil sector, select Indian companies stand to gain over time if sanctions ease, investments revive and Venezuelan crude once again finds its way into global—and Indian—energy markets.